The last issue of the CFTC was October 20, 2009.
The COT index is the percentage difference between purely speculative positions and purely traded positions measured during a given week (52 or 13). A value close to 0 indicates that it is forming downwards, and a value close to 100 indicates that it is forming upwards. The reading refers to the real currency, not the currency pair. For example, a value of 100 Canadian dollars indicates that the Canadian dollar is close to the top (USDCAD is close to the bottom).
Indicators at 95 over 5 are highlighted in bold red to indicate the potential for extreme market performance. For example, the index rises up until the index becomes extreme (around 100), at which point the risk of reversing the trend or ending the trend is increasing.
USD
No change from the previous week “The speculators continue to buy shorts. The red line (speculative position) is approaching the record level in 2008. Obviously, the position is extreme, and a reversal will come in extreme sentiment. The question is whether it will be sooner or later."
euro:
Technical conditions have slightly reduced long positions, but EURUSD remains strong. However, last week the gap between speculative positions and trades was the widest since January 2008. Accompanying this extreme decline was around 600 points. This is the type of condition that precedes a reversal.
British pound
COT warns of an extraordinary downward trend with GBPUSD around 1,000 points. The difference between the technical term "advertising" remains large.
No changes from last week. “Austrian dollar long speculative positions are the highest since mid-July 2008, when AUDUSD hit 0.9850. Futures traders have been around since mid-August. Notifications exploded again. The only thing missing at this point is reverse gear.
No changes from last week. “The NZD length has historically not been as extreme as the AUD, but its position in October 2007 was more one-sided. We have to wait our turn."
No changes from last week. “The long-term yen exchange rate has gone to extremes in recent weeks, warning of a reversal. This reversal occurred, contributing to the fall of the yen (USDJPY rises).
No changes from last week. “Ambition towards the Canadian dollar has been high since June 2008, where the Canadian dollar has reached a critical high against the US dollar. The weekly candlestick forms a hammer, which is an inverted Bulgarian pattern. CAD sell support (buy USDCAD).
No changes from last week. This is the time when the Swiss franc reaches significant highs (USDCHF minimum). - Wait here.
Jamie Settle publishes daily technical data every business morning, COT analysis (published on Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday and Friday (Euro Crossroads) Daily trading strategies on market action.
Author: Jamie Settel
Australian Dollars
No changes from last week. “Austrian dollar long speculative positions are the highest since mid-July 2008, when AUDUSD hit 0.9850. Futures traders have been around since mid-August. Notifications exploded again. The only thing missing at this point is reverse gear.
New Zealand Dollar
No changes from last week. “The NZD length has historically not been as extreme as the AUD, but its position in October 2007 was more one-sided. We have to wait our turn."
Japanese Yen
No changes from last week. “The long-term yen exchange rate has gone to extremes in recent weeks, warning of a reversal. This reversal occurred, contributing to the fall of the yen (USDJPY rises).
Canadian Dollar
No changes from last week. “Ambition towards the Canadian dollar has been high since June 2008, where the Canadian dollar has reached a critical high against the US dollar. The weekly candlestick forms a hammer, which is an inverted Bulgarian pattern. CAD sell support (buy USDCAD).
Swiss Franc
No changes from last week. This is the time when the Swiss franc reaches significant highs (USDCHF minimum). - Wait here.
Jamie Settle publishes daily technical data every business morning, COT analysis (published on Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday and Friday (Euro Crossroads) Daily trading strategies on market action.
Author: Jamie Settel
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